Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x151ccd153274bc6d79ab7a6bc8c2f5bd9b0ee5de0f4c581fd162f96552174cea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 70c | 359.36$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.29 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 187.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 60c | 163.09$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed No | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 20c | 129.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 21c | 116.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 27c | 109.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 103.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 13c | 92.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828c…a8a2backed Yes | 23c | 88.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 41c | 84.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 28c | 80.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 60.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 33c | 55.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0c…ad39backed No | 59c | 51.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 36c | 51.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…3409backed No | 59c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…1870backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34af…b672backed Yes | 32c | 49.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 48.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 58c | 46.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed Yes | 23c | 46.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d8…e461backed No | 59c | 45.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…09bdbacked Yes | 45c | 44.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8c…0387backed No | 76c | 42.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…5d3dbacked No | 69c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 75c | 37.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…1ac2backed Yes | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4a50backed Yes | 41c | 36.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fb…5a80backed Yes | 41c | 36.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1942…1e2fbacked Yes | 41c | 36.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 47c | 36.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8665…3d99backed Yes | 56c | 35.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 33.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 59c | 33.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 64c | 31.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked Yes | 43c | 26.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 40c | 25.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 50c | 24.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 60c | 23.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.