Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7936a92e29e23baebf8dd2fd95a85222927959b55f58f40b6d1c5427fc77371e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 23c | 1,352$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.93 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 19c | 534.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 46c | 506.95$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.82 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…44dfbacked Yes | 77c | 400$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 55c | 390.36$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.46 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 71c | 354.9$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 70c | 292.74$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.74 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 18c | 278.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 44c | 218$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.14 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 208.86$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.73 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 202.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 60c | 190$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.1 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 58c | 184.25$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.53 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 164.63$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.83 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 45c | 150.12$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 52c | 143.01$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 140.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 73c | 138.28$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd246…fec7backed No | 67c | 137.62$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 31c | 137.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 65c | 132.42$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…09bdbacked Yes | 47c | 129.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 49c | 115.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…4951backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…5ce7backed No | 74c | 95.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2a…d42ebacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed Yes | 24c | 79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.91 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…58bdbacked Yes | 38c | 78.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 52c | 77.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 30c | 75.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 70c | 72.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 33c | 68.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 33c | 67.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 61c | 64.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 26c | 63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 59.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 34c | 55.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 34c | 54.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 35c | 53.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…36b3backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 40c | 49.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 41c | 49.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…18c9backed Yes | 25c | 48.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +301.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 47.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 45.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 30c | 45.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 33c | 44.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1e…15e8backed Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 35c | 40.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…b083backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 54c | 39.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 31c | 39.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce0…d57fbacked Yes | 51c | 39.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 40c | 38.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 67c | 37.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8c…0387backed No | 61c | 37.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 65c | 35.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…1744backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 41c | 31.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 66c | 30.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 57c | 29.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 39c | 28.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…5d3dbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…f9a2backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked Yes | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 67c | 20.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…920ebacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa82…ed3ebacked Yes | 62c | 17.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 66c | 17.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 76c | 14.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.