Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ff7ab615bd235ff0f2c19f7623a12e3348d6bc3c28f4969344e700ec7d51f41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 4c | 571.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 9c | 500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 34c | 390.47$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.4 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 13c | 335.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 317.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 45c | 242.69$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.66 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 22c | 239.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 13c | 208.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8c…0387backed Yes | 27c | 206.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…4951backed Yes | 15c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 195.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…3f91backed Yes | 30c | 192.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 188.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 18c | 185.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 25c | 172.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 28c | 166.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 14c | 162.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 146.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 16c | 142.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 45c | 139.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.01 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed Yes | 15c | 133$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed No | 69c | 125$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 65c | 117.71$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…2b4cbacked Yes | 17c | 104.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe5…2c55backed No | 76c | 104.26$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 15c | 99.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 32c | 94.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 11c | 92.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 14c | 87.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 13c | 84.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 29c | 77.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 72.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 36c | 56.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…36b3backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 43c | 49.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 28c | 46.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…1744backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d2…0bc0backed Yes | 36c | 39.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 34.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 63c | 33.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…58bdbacked Yes | 59c | 31.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6f33backed Yes | 37c | 30.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked No | 68c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…e498backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 38c | 28.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828c…a8a2backed No | 65c | 23.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 54c | 18.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed No | 75c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 76c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.