Tennis · resolved market
ITF Brisbane: Chase Ferguson vs Scott Jones
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb45dd03ef23214f39e1264c789ce5a30a45d0f360bc7a237f0c155dc24657f1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chase Fergusonof Chase Ferguson, Scott Jones
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chase Ferguson | 49c | 2,638$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.94 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Scott Jones | 49c | 2,407$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.85 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…d869backed Scott Jones | 49c | 1,744$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.23 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Scott Jones | 42c | 1,658$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.39 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Chase Ferguson | 59c | 1,154$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.37 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…5cc8backed Scott Jones | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.74 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Chase Ferguson | 69c | 552.71$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.71 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…641abacked Chase Ferguson | 62c | 540.58$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.32 | 337 | 51.9%175 W · 162 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chase Ferguson | 57c | 512.87$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.94 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b57…de6bbacked Chase Ferguson | 43c | 249.72$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.34 | 312 | 37.8%118 W · 194 L | -24.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked Chase Ferguson | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 223 | 46.6%104 W · 119 L | +15.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Chase Ferguson | 36c | 156.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.29 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Scott Jones | 36c | 120.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 242 | 29.8%72 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…352fbacked Scott Jones | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Scott Jones | 28c | 97.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad4e…a1a1backed Scott Jones | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Chase Ferguson | 47c | 79.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Scott Jones | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Scott Jones | 53c | 70.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Chase Ferguson | 66c | 56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Chase Ferguson | 54c | 40.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Scott Jones | 44c | 32.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…1269backed Chase Ferguson | 66c | 29.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Chase Ferguson | 50c | 28.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 127 | 67.7%86 W · 41 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Chase Ferguson | 51c | 27.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Scott Jones | 52c | 21.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 450 | 53.3%240 W · 210 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.