Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: South Florida Bulls (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb46b8c8eae967a68ce64eaa2dd5349905b24e05d59f91586427aaebc2e924135
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- South Florida Bullsof South Florida Bulls, Memphis Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,253 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1e6…1dc1backed Memphis Tigers | 52c | 4,973$2,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,585.74 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed South Florida Bulls | 49c | 2,641$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.12 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked South Florida Bulls | 48c | 1,531$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.59 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked South Florida Bulls | 52c | 1,061$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.37 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Memphis Tigers | 48c | 1,033$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.63 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed South Florida Bulls | 47c | 794.03$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.37 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef0…f14cbacked Memphis Tigers | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6da…2b66backed Memphis Tigers | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Memphis Tigers | 49c | 165.26$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed South Florida Bulls | 51c | 148.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Memphis Tigers | 57c | 145.13$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Memphis Tigers | 47c | 142$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked South Florida Bulls | 55c | 130.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked South Florida Bulls | 50c | 121.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Memphis Tigers | 50c | 120.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Memphis Tigers | 51c | 111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Memphis Tigers | 51c | 107.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Memphis Tigers | 48c | 101.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed South Florida Bulls | 54c | 101.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 218 | 50.5%110 W · 108 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed South Florida Bulls | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6e…b1a7backed Memphis Tigers | 51c | 97.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed South Florida Bulls | 51c | 56.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed South Florida Bulls | 51c | 52.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -9.9wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x57d3…2d0fbacked South Florida Bulls | 51c | 48.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…4cf7backed South Florida Bulls | 54c | 43.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…dddfbacked South Florida Bulls | 51c | 42.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Memphis Tigers | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked South Florida Bulls | 48c | 33.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Memphis Tigers | 46c | 32.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe825…39b7backed South Florida Bulls | 51c | 30.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked South Florida Bulls | 48c | 21.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Memphis Tigers | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed South Florida Bulls | 51c | 20.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…ba10backed South Florida Bulls | 51c | 20.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…7593backed South Florida Bulls | 51c | 20.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…80d0backed South Florida Bulls | 51c | 20.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: South Florida Bulls (-6.5)this page
- South Florida Bulls vs. Memphis TigersSouth Florida Bulls won
- South Florida Bulls vs. Memphis Tigers: O/U 160.5Over won
- South Florida Bulls vs. Memphis Tigers: O/U 161.5Over won
- Spread: South Florida Bulls (-5.5)South Florida Bulls won
- Spread: South Florida Bulls (-7.5)Memphis Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.