Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Game Master (BO1) - ESL Challenger China Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb470c2f02dfa1789f9be9b888ee2b4521c4ca3adc6ab65f6f7fb10215c540c87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vici Gamingof Vici Gaming, Game Master
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c64…36e2backed Game Master | 37c | 20,600$7,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,620 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x962a…f14fbacked Vici Gaming | 63c | 20,400$12,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,548 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Game Master | 32c | 1,108$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.59 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Game Master | 34c | 1,083$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.22 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Game Master | 33c | 583.37$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.34 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…5dd3backed Vici Gaming | 65c | 455.94$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.66 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Vici Gaming | 68c | 391.38$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.55 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…97b4backed Vici Gaming | 68c | 353$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.96 | 154 | 65.6%101 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Game Master | 33c | 309.52$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.14 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked Vici Gaming | 67c | 303.57$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.37 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Vici Gaming | 73c | 246.8$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Vici Gaming | 71c | 197$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Game Master | 21c | 181.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Game Master | 13c | 180.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da1…e6dfbacked Vici Gaming | 69c | 150$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Vici Gaming | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…20e7backed Vici Gaming | 73c | 138.71$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Vici Gaming | 59c | 122.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed Game Master | 42c | 120.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 375 | 49.3%185 W · 190 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Game Master | 22c | 115.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Game Master | 31c | 113.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…ff88backed Game Master | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Vici Gaming | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf76d…29d8backed Vici Gaming | 70c | 91.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Vici Gaming | 67c | 77.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Vici Gaming | 71c | 77.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Vici Gaming | 65c | 57.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bd…fbf3backed Game Master | 27c | 54.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…f260backed Game Master | 27c | 40.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f7…8917backed Game Master | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked Game Master | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…a7a3backed Vici Gaming | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…6fbdbacked Vici Gaming | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…7791backed Vici Gaming | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b4…d205backed Vici Gaming | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed Vici Gaming | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…d11fbacked Vici Gaming | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…7fdfbacked Vici Gaming | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…9168backed Vici Gaming | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Vici Gaming | 66c | 17.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.