NHL · resolved market
KHL: Severstal Cherepovets vs. HC Dynamo Moscow
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4799eaf0d6be501b186a563f22d76e4651b6476638007372a88ac0939aa0b72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HC Dynamo Moscowof Severstal Cherepovets, HC Dynamo Moscow
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked HC Dynamo Moscow | 48c | 992.77$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.24 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7e…08fdbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 52c | 962$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.24 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 49c | 316.08$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.88 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed HC Dynamo Moscow | 49c | 279$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.29 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked HC Dynamo Moscow | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked HC Dynamo Moscow | 49c | 190$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed HC Dynamo Moscow | 49c | 159$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ab…2b99backed HC Dynamo Moscow | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…3db7backed Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89fe…4293backed Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb570…25dbbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked HC Dynamo Moscow | 49c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…bd5cbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 57cpaid | -77%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…9fcabacked Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked HC Dynamo Moscow | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…c985backed Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed HC Dynamo Moscow | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed HC Dynamo Moscow | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 49c | 25.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…667fbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5469…a3fcbacked Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed Severstal Cherepovets | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.