Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb487631e73e8b38c493f8af9608ec466f1abd3024beba9e60f4032df80cf0aed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0105…3fa2backed No | 1c | 3,142$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…8e49backed No | 1c | 1,525$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1475…74b8backed No | 2c | 1,377$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 8c | 945.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x062a…56ffbacked No | 2c | 713.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 238.38$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 52c | 183.91$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.73 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 171.1$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 70c | 158.68$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 37c | 133.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.3 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 127.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 124.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 44c | 120.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 45c | 118.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 37c | 95.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 21c | 94.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 44c | 89.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 80.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 74.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 37c | 69.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 65.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 40c | 63.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x220a…9181backed Yes | 35c | 57.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 32c | 57.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb006…753dbacked Yes | 35c | 57.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 31c | 51.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 23c | 50.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 61c | 47.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 43.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 25c | 43.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 28c | 43.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…72cfbacked No | 63c | 41.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 55c | 38.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 36.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…6d81backed Yes | 66c | 36.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 40c | 34.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 34.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 76c | 29.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 68c | 27.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c78…4f7bbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ec…3dd8backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 71c | 22.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 57c | 19.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 58c | 18.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 60c | 17.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 65c | 17.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.