Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f1a94b6f49371307fb719f09cd771d8897ab2b9662319610d1ba43c4df0fc4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d54…da72backed Yes | 0c | 20,403$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 0c | 17,727$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 577.55$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.65 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 552.87$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe0…64b7backed Yes | 19c | 322.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…1ed9backed Yes | 20c | 321.95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 79c | 253.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…1231backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 184.76$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 10c | 165.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 26c | 159.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 152.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 16c | 137.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 10c | 134.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 133.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 14c | 128$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c5…7633backed Yes | 18c | 127.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 23c | 118.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 20c | 109.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 104.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…51f6backed Yes | 19c | 98.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…14b5backed Yes | 26c | 92.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 87.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 31c | 87.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 18c | 78.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 20c | 72.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 18c | 71.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 65.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 21c | 59.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 56.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 54.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb006…753dbacked Yes | 21c | 52.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 80c | 50.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 24c | 43.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 37.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 37c | 36.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…0c2ebacked No | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 40c | 30.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eee…7d23backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 70c | 21.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 79c | 18.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 80c | 18.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 77c | 15.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 14.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 78c | 14.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 76c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.