Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc166d6d84403bccc1145276194080753697fa9f24ef1b3b2ac77806d2d946ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 3c | 2,709$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8dddbacked Yes | 6c | 734.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x830f…89d3backed Yes | 4c | 614.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 4c | 550$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x062a…56ffbacked Yes | 3c | 521.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 469.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 419$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 371.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 352.89$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.66 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd524…0f5abacked Yes | 8c | 342.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…c179backed Yes | 5c | 310.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 283.8$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 19c | 205.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x979f…6b3ebacked No | 73c | 196.65$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 193.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 190.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 39c | 162.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 32c | 155.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 9c | 151.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…1a73backed No | 78c | 136.42$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…1ed9backed No | 73c | 131.6$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 31c | 127.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 127.87$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 43c | 116.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 35c | 93.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 27c | 91.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 27c | 89.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked Yes | 35c | 87.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 43c | 86.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 26c | 85.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 75c | 82.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 32c | 82.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 77.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…7bb5backed Yes | 57c | 77.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 29c | 72.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 35c | 71.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 73c | 66.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 53c | 62.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb006…753dbacked Yes | 27c | 57.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…eacdbacked Yes | 29c | 52.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0927…6605backed No | 59c | 47.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 42c | 47.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 33c | 42.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 37.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 35.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed No | 75c | 30.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 73c | 29.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 67c | 28.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…e317backed No | 76c | 28.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 69c | 26.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked No | 74c | 26.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 76c | 25.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked No | 75c | 25.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 53c | 24.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…ded2backed No | 65c | 22.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd3…013fbacked Yes | 49c | 21.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1d…aa8abacked Yes | 48c | 21.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked No | 53c | 19.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 76c | 17.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 72c | 17.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae7…10d5backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5170…b6b8backed No | 74c | 14.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.