Earnings · resolved market
Will Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4c0881635c3ec435868b0357a4318402f37f0de66c8f601a9b5964c00f0fdcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 44c | 533$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.52 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 40c | 331$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.17 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 63c | 257.25$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 58c | 243.93$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 42c | 241.85$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 69c | 214.28$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 59c | 202.18$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 39c | 149.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67df…772fbacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 31c | 129.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 39c | 127.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 43c | 99.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 70c | 96.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5817…9306backed Yes | 42c | 77.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 65.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 56c | 62.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…2dfabacked No | 43c | 48.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…a6b0backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x959f…d712backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…7cd2backed No | 53c | 35.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd25b…dd82backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…d65abacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 63cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…8177backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.