World Politics · resolved market
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5149466feda995b97f6833560be9004a479cfc6b7140668ef713831e10ab80e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe467…437fbacked Yes | 9c | 3,307$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 1,050$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 5c | 970$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 3c | 898.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 749.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 661.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f0…50f9backed Yes | 5c | 660$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab00…8226backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…f9adbacked Yes | 7c | 242$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bf…99d3backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +245.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 39c | 190.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.16 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +7.0wins | +0.33per pick | 43cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3695…0c7cbacked Yes | 6c | 183.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40bd…6b9abacked Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…2a33backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by February 28, 2026?this page
- U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.