NHL · resolved market
Devils vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb523735c3cb59fa20c21fd45e5731279a2987e3bca02f8b3f28093f3a2b6d2b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1be4…47c3backed Over | 50c | 27,000$13,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e2…ab89backed Under | 50c | 26,994$13,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,497.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 10,266$5,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,260.44 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0c…3026backed Under | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.98 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 51c | 2,565$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.85 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fd…c0bebacked Under | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Over | 48c | 1,740$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.8 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Under | 51c | 1,499$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.38 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 1,213$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.17 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 52c | 1,152$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.04 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 700$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 49c | 660$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.2 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 49c | 503.12$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.92 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 432$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.64 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Under | 49c | 351.02$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…22eabacked Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -47%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Under | 48c | 192$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Under | 52c | 140.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 52c | 126$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over | 47c | 101.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8b…0026backed Under | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 52c | 74.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Over | 48c | 48.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60d…2204backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 51c | 46.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…fc1abacked Over | 49c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Under | 53c | 40.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…bf36backed Under | 52c | 23.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Under | 52c | 23.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Devils vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5this page
- Devils vs. IslandersIslanders won
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)Islanders won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Islanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.