Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb543f9d223910b1f5b4e3587f828228a93648a0cc30dcc972cbb35d10cc8db93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 0c | 73,942$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.38 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Yes | 0c | 7,948$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 5,801$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 4,433$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,605$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 30c | 401.15$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.73 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed No | 77c | 290.19$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c78…4f7bbacked No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 78.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5a…1dc1backed No | 71c | 78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…01cebacked No | 80c | 67.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 68cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked No | 72c | 64.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…eb82backed Yes | 29c | 64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415e…e151backed Yes | 29c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…5b35backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 39.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 37.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd3…31fbbacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 74c | 28.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 25.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe13…a594backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 68c | 21.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7a…73c0backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 71c | 14.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.