Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x044629550b16f31aeb2cccdcc42f68730378110a5507f99433ac9bc0a8a07a87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e91…11d7backed Yes | 2c | 1,151$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 259.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5978…a870backed No | 72c | 229.32$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 31c | 134.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 96.72$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 40c | 95.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 54c | 91.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 81.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 33c | 75.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked No | 64c | 53.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 49.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…01cebacked No | 64c | 48.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 68cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 58c | 46.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 43c | 46.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 33c | 45.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed No | 60c | 45.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 26c | 44.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 61c | 40.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 39.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 61c | 35.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 35c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 72c | 27.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 27.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 74c | 25.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 22.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 20.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7a…73c0backed No | 73c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 72c | 18.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 17.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.