Asian League · resolved market
Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb56d9b82d2c0f6fe6964594510ad006e99603c5bc0eb46a1f714f56d867c3309
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 49c | 8,290$4,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,190.01 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 6,344$3,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,236.74 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 2,724$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.69 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 45c | 1,311$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.13 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…7b8dbacked Under | 63c | 718$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.98 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 75c | 579.87$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.36 | 225 | 44%99 W · 126 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.32 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…7823backed Under | 67c | 511.94$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 76c | 447.36$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 34c | 420.28$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.55 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 74c | 392.38$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.36 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 47c | 299.89$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.64 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 67c | 289.47$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.56 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…c991backed Over | 36c | 274.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.23 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fc…0a4cbacked Over | 29c | 249.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.48 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed Over | 51c | 196.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 70c | 165.9$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 152.87$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.9 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…0fddbacked Under | 59c | 118.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 181 | 38.7%70 W · 111 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 32c | 78.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 26c | 74.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 57c | 67.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 47c | 63.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 49c | 62.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 25c | 62.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Under | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 75c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 26c | 48.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed Under | 75c | 35.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…65dcbacked Over | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…b3edbacked Under | 65c | 30.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46cb…08debacked Under | 60c | 28.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Under | 76c | 26.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Over | 41c | 24.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 74c | 23.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 107 | 73.8%79 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Under | 55c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5)Liaoning Tieren FC won
- Spread: Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)Liaoning Tieren FC won
- Spread: Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-1.5)Liaoning Tieren FC won
- Spread: Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-2.5)Liaoning Tieren FC won
- Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.