World Politics · resolved market
Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win fewer than 150 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb571f9daf46173f804fdce8b6398e3d557d34e1c686aaa268800470137909a42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14bc…aa14backed No | 9c | 334.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…f183backed No | 10c | 264$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8661…3f45backed Yes | 69c | 229$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 20c | 199.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 995 | 17.2%171 W · 824 L | -149.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7a…201abacked Yes | 70c | 186.74$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 128.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 1,437 | 10.2%147 W · 1,290 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc186…1667backed No | 10c | 101.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 26c | 101.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…8ebbbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dad…90a1backed No | 13c | 89.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 19c | 61.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 21c | 59.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win fewer than 150 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?this page
- Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win 190 or more seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?No won
- Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win between 150 and 159 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?No won
- Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win between 160 and 169 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?No won
- Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win between 170 and 179 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?No won
- Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win between 180 and 189 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.