Champions League · resolved market
Will PSG vs. Botafogo end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb58517cd049780473bc05ab62a966b6a8f684653804f3d114ae770270f842b56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 14c | 20,020$2,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,802.8 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 65c | 6,237$4,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,198.95 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 80c | 5,700$4,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147 | 204 | 62.3%127 W · 77 L | +19.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 20c | 5,093$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.27 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 77c | 4,267$3,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.65 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Yes | 33c | 3,029$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…2a3ebacked Yes | 35c | 2,357$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.48 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 25c | 1,820$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 70c | 1,554$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.72 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 69c | 1,294$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.9 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5e…3a87backed Yes | 20c | 748.23$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 21c | 742$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.82 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed No | 78c | 700$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…1007backed Yes | 14c | 505$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f8…cdd8backed Yes | 14c | 470$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 76c | 384.32$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.81 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…1678backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed No | 76c | 264.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 67c | 160$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…a3adbacked Yes | 17c | 154.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61cf…3c52backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed Yes | 17c | 143.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 71c | 70.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +305.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54d7…c74dbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…aae4backed Yes | 27c | 64.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe75…baa9backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…ab8fbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Yes | 32c | 51.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33a5…baffbacked Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f02…19e2backed Yes | 32c | 36.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…a1bdbacked Yes | 35c | 29.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PSG vs. Botafogo end in a draw?this page
- Will Botafogo beat PSG?Yes won
- Will PSG beat Botafogo?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.