Champions League · resolved market
Will Botafogo beat PSG?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4048aa9ba786b55761ff1385918cfc591b1e46f7a1a56953849052d70b9cde13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 9c | 12,555$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,464.5 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 28c | 7,413$2,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,072.33 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 32c | 6,247$1,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,254.1 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63eb…d9f8backed No | 20c | 3,498$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 7c | 3,250$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,022.5 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 6c | 3,049$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,855.05 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 63c | 2,875$1,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820.51 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 53c | 2,403$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.82 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 35c | 2,000$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 15c | 1,687$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.61 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…1eecbacked Yes | 72c | 1,536$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.42 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ef…b4d9backed Yes | 68c | 1,473$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.45 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 45c | 1,120$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.27 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 9c | 909.09$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.7 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed No | 26c | 764.31$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.35 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 10c | 514.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.21 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c09…2232backed Yes | 69c | 447.49$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 8c | 409$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.28 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…b128backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked No | 70c | 265.76$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.03 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 5c | 230.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.69 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc281…7ebbbacked Yes | 31c | 216.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…a3adbacked Yes | 29c | 156.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…03c2backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed No | 20c | 99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…a008backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 79c | 82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 67c | 71.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +305.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd18…a458backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…6ab0backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b9…e58fbacked Yes | 62c | 43.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed No | 58c | 43.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…a02abacked Yes | 31c | 41.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd978…d50abacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17eb…82bcbacked Yes | 58c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo beat PSG?this page
- Will PSG beat Botafogo?No won
- Will PSG vs. Botafogo end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.