MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 19.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb595b1a4dc0282c1af20e4aa741471670b33e8146a39eb129947241c69c4fc83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed Over | 0c | 13,639$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked Over | 0c | 11,943$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 6,786$3,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,551.17 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Under | 44c | 4,131$1,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,314.25 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 53c | 2,646$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.22 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 41c | 339.68$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.8 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 57c | 261.08$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 53c | 134$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 47c | 105.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 52c | 77.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 290 | 43.1%125 W · 165 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 67c | 75.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Over | 40c | 42.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 54c | 37.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb71…b5a0backed Over | 44c | 27.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 19.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-10.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-6.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-7.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-9.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.