MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8794f7c4101098577c18cd13806d93f4d8d9f43aa4416b0033954b81418b5ed7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x034b…b22bbacked Boston Red Sox | 46c | 2,093$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.74 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 1,236$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.25 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 1,152$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.37 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Minnesota Twins | 55c | 1,061$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.65 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 824.05$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.07 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Boston Red Sox | 47c | 749.63$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.08 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 475$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.25 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 442.27$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.02 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Minnesota Twins | 53c | 260$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 224.86$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.93 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Boston Red Sox | 47c | 206$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d6…370dbacked Boston Red Sox | 46c | 194.23$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 192.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 150.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 144.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 141.53$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Minnesota Twins | 71c | 107.7$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 72.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 69.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 67.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 133 | 48.9%65 W · 68 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 63.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 54.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 51.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…3132backed Minnesota Twins | 53c | 45.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 29.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Minnesota Twins | 55c | 24.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Minnesota Twins | 55c | 24.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 19.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-10.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-6.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-7.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-9.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.