Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Real Sociedad beat Viktoria Plzen?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb597a2e6f27de6c13f2d055deaef71902c43ce423e64017a837df1ee1c6f82b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 60c | 2,750$1,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.19 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 53c | 1,000$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.19 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x487f…30babacked Yes | 50c | 980$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…7e54backed No | 50c | 980$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 49c | 888.75$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.3 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 29c | 710$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f8…bd61backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce7c…ea32backed Yes | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…59e2backed No | 47c | 244.78$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.73 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 71c | 210$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f58…4138backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yes | 52c | 143.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 45c | 140$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 44c | 131.17$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 41c | 129.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Yes | 57c | 117.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x23a6…9347backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…1a5cbacked Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad0…bcbcbacked Yes | 53c | 96.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd35…4effbacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…2d34backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 46c | 83.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 54c | 78.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x601f…e1d9backed Yes | 51c | 73.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c2dabacked Yes | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1e89backed Yes | 51c | 58.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadea…b51dbacked Yes | 51c | 57.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…71f4backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5234…7b42backed Yes | 51c | 45.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 47c | 45.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…6aeabacked Yes | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…82fdbacked Yes | 49c | 34.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…b04cbacked Yes | 51c | 32.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb39…6f51backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…7eb8backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…8a79backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa153…4e37backed Yes | 51c | 24.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5119…a581backed Yes | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Sociedad beat Viktoria Plzen?this page
- Will Viktoria Plzen beat Real Sociedad?Yes won
- Will the match between Viktoria Plzen and Real Sociedad end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.