Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb66de41d8d2febde3ef4c32fa141832ce5bd6ebaa5827ea113ef788e2beba551
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 45c | 218.47$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 178.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 166.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 41c | 106.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 26c | 102.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 94.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 56c | 90.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 66c | 73.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 73.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 69.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 17c | 68.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 52c | 67.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 65c | 58.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 53.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 57c | 53.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 21c | 52.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 33c | 46.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 43.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 73c | 42.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 64c | 39.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 38c | 38.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 28c | 38.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 37.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 36.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…9b27backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 35.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 61c | 32.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 24.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 24.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…a047backed Yes | 66c | 22.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 57c | 19.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 70c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.