Champions League · resolved market
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb684cbc8f857c86b4be18f7668fb479ce3959ea6cda2781bb26ad7156074b210
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 5,548$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.84 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 77c | 5,000$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 75c | 2,613$1,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.51 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 23c | 2,460$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.91 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 23c | 2,222$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.06 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…fa89backed Yes | 7c | 2,121$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 76c | 1,832$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8accbacked Yes | 24c | 1,729$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…64e9backed No | 76c | 1,292$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77da…87ebbacked Yes | 32c | 1,236$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f99cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,055$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.46 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b30…30cfbacked Yes | 25c | 802.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e2…961ebacked No | 77c | 800$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…e89bbacked Yes | 23c | 800$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 75c | 544$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Yes | 32c | 437.5$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 399.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed No | 68c | 343.5$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.92 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 339.5$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…2398backed Yes | 23c | 174$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed Yes | 23c | 159.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Yes | 22c | 128.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc74…216cbacked No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe799…137ebacked Yes | 19c | 104.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 76c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…7e70backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…c220backed No | 77c | 46.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…da3bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c4…699bbacked No | 77c | 28.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-10-21?No won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.