Champions League · resolved market
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-10-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e7a692c37726330674889ef0a1c1c74efc2890b3fdfd9f6e91b46af517247f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Yes | 18c | 11,961$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,119.87 | 142 | 35.2%50 W · 92 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 10,101$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.55 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Yes | 18c | 10,029$1,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,805.26 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb44e…c2c6backed Yes | 19c | 10,000$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 18c | 5,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 112 | 18.8%21 W · 91 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 19c | 3,947$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 9c | 2,844$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.93 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 18c | 2,677$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.86 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 18c | 2,400$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 20c | 2,050$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Yes | 11c | 1,355$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.07 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1590…9e72backed Yes | 19c | 1,316$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 15c | 1,085$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…d367backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 5c | 650$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Yes | 19c | 520.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 19c | 502$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6bbdbacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1797…baa7backed Yes | 18c | 495$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0b…e2a3backed Yes | 19c | 473.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…811abacked Yes | 8c | 319.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…bc8cbacked Yes | 19c | 315.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 193 | 44%85 W · 108 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…39cebacked Yes | 19c | 284.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 18c | 236.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…b079backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…1427backed Yes | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…409fbacked Yes | 19c | 156$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3185…937abacked Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00dd…edcebacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcece…8c50backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0afe…f6f4backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf6…0d60backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…f2ebbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…c68bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb150…ac78backed Yes | 16c | 99.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…47c8backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 18c | 79.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 13c | 75.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Yes | 18c | 72.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a24…16b9backed Yes | 19c | 69.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f7…3643backed Yes | 21c | 55.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…0d95backed Yes | 20c | 50.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b97…3f54backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2990…da92backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed No | 80c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-10-21?this page
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.