Movies · resolved market
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb69f27f2d0f1db891ef4be50a4d7f61b78740f959015e4f5a49869157bed1714
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 10c | 1,698$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.84 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 11c | 484$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 10c | 420$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 8c | 415.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb8…69edbacked Yes | 4c | 309$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 8c | 283.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0f…f03bbacked Yes | 13c | 193.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked Yes | 13c | 154$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 8c | 134.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 13c | 128$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 11c | 127$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?this page
- Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?No won
- Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?No won
- Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?Yes won
- Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.