Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-05-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6aaa289f6fa2c3437b40ad55a9e202c619aa8f2b0dbcca3f5d022fbf166a7f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 9c | 24,137$2,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,220.76 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 13c | 1,504$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.6 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 12c | 1,189$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.05 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…232cbacked Yes | 14c | 928.57$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 6c | 855.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Yes | 8c | 476.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Yes | 13c | 446.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 12c | 271.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…3880backed Yes | 9c | 176.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 12c | 168.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 17cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 15c | 129.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Yes | 14c | 111.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Yes | 62c | 80.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…380cbacked Yes | 65c | 46.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…85b5backed Yes | 65c | 45.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…9257backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd10…32e8backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-05-08?this page
- Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-05-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.