Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bef9905ae792f04983dc569bb6a7ac50a19deb17839abedb45b87e2a58b8b7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 17c | 3,500$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,904.96 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 51c | 1,835$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.66 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 14c | 998.1$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 30c | 969.44$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.44 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 30c | 950.01$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.45 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…c775backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 30c | 705.48$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.48 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 64c | 590.68$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.01 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 59c | 571.14$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.56 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1f…5d75backed Yes | 73c | 504$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 45c | 469.47$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.46 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 14c | 420.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 70c | 186.23$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.29 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 13c | 153.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.25 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 13c | 146.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.54 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 17cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Yes | 64c | 141.66$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 13c | 123$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.01 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked No | 21c | 115$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 51c | 113.38$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 68c | 103.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 13c | 100.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.89 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 17c | 92.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…084dbacked Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Yes | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 18c | 77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…85b5backed Yes | 71c | 75.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…7c12backed Yes | 27c | 61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +201.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 55c | 57.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Yes | 41c | 51.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd10…32e8backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 34c | 38.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +12.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 47c | 37.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 69c | 37.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcd…d377backed Yes | 66c | 33.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 38c | 33.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 42c | 32.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…af49backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Yes | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Yes | 57c | 23.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda51…ef7fbacked Yes | 63c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…09a8backed Yes | 74c | 20.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-05-08?No won
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-05-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.