Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-05-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc156bd09a436185fcbd648a91accb3bd2f38011d5c4de4d0ac12844f49c47223
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 75c | 3,652$2,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.49 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 14c | 2,019$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.57 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed No | 60c | 1,871$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.61 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 29c | 1,763$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.15 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,404$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.21 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 68c | 1,176$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 52c | 999.37$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.19 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 33c | 970.26$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.78 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 78c | 709.96$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.14 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b3…7650backed No | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 34c | 490.43$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.52 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 78c | 485.04$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.52 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 29c | 430.39$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.51 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 31c | 423.02$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.95 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…1204backed No | 31c | 406.45$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.45 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked No | 17c | 399.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.99 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 71c | 390.14$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 69c | 362.57$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.17 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 37c | 335.14$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 69c | 319.12$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…145cbacked Yes | 71c | 316.03$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 31c | 315.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.1 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 33c | 293.51$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.46 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 30c | 269.18$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.51 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 30c | 236$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.2 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Yes | 71c | 191.35$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.86 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…7e93backed No | 17c | 187.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 10c | 176.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 16c | 174.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.28 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed Yes | 70c | 170.57$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.4 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 15c | 163.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 30c | 152.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked Yes | 70c | 142.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…49b7backed Yes | 71c | 140.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 29c | 113.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fd…633bbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed No | 76c | 92.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 71c | 81.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 28c | 81.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…8583backed Yes | 16c | 80.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 70c | 71.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 30c | 71.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…daa0backed No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Yes | 20c | 63.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -83%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95ad…4eebbacked Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcd…d377backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…2920backed Yes | 37c | 55.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0280…6e1ebacked Yes | 70c | 55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e6…8222backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 29c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 31c | 48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed No | 30c | 43.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x650a…0f82backed Yes | 70c | 42.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 40c | 42.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 30c | 41.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…85b5backed Yes | 57c | 40.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x548f…d295backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 70c | 28.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…c2d0backed Yes | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Yes | 69c | 24.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 70c | 22.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 62c | 18.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Yes | 61c | 17.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed No | 63c | 17.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-05-08?this page
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-05-08?No won
- Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.