Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6b3513002968f10197c2785a464414e4c6bae3f593d2381e6d88070b53741df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 28c | 340.62$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 72c | 273.75$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.35 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 24c | 270.62$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.04 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 40c | 259.41$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.88 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 21c | 229.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 198.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 150.2$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 140$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 76c | 110.72$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 105.73$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 78c | 95.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 70.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 36c | 66.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 27c | 66.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 73c | 64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 79c | 63.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 75c | 60.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 76c | 57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 76c | 55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 25c | 53.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 77c | 51.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 51.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 51.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 41c | 48.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 65c | 47.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 46.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 39c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 78c | 45.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 78c | 42.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…b2afbacked No | 79c | 35.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 71c | 35.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 34.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 42c | 25.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…27c7backed No | 72c | 15.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…023abacked Yes | 80c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9eb…c7b3backed No | 77c | 14.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.