Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e65ed479b220b1dddd289630d0997616eb81a7515fad7876941b965e038d87f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 46c | 310.27$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.76 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 54c | 265.59$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.77 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 53c | 219.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 184.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 62c | 161.47$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 65c | 122.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 117.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 106.94$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 30c | 103.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 45c | 100.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 18c | 100.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…fe42backed No | 65c | 92.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed No | 54c | 68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 67.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 37c | 66.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 52c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 43c | 56.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 25c | 55.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 73c | 55.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0a…6b52backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d4…5ba7backed No | 54c | 40.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 42c | 38.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e5…f156backed Yes | 50c | 37.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…e477backed Yes | 52c | 34.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 34.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 65c | 32.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 67c | 30.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 29.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 28.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…1b8abacked Yes | 51c | 26.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 57c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3225…d1cfbacked Yes | 42c | 24.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 58c | 20.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…953fbacked No | 68c | 18.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 66c | 18.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.