Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6d7b3bb68e0c6f2cb2410bd46e6a7bd0c41ab5d9aaf8f552ce3b62cff94193c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 3,253$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,532.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked No | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 947.67$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 8c | 527.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.72 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 445.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.73 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57de…cd90backed No | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 66c | 379.65$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 19c | 350.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.46 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 12c | 308.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.84 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 40c | 279.58$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.58 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 10c | 274.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.82 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 6c | 265.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.63 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 8c | 247.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.87 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 46c | 235.38$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.06 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x262f…87edbacked No | 11c | 211.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 210.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 66c | 189.54$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 56c | 156.77$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 24c | 144.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.14 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 14c | 120.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 42c | 118.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 116.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 68c | 116.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 45c | 112.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd801…ab8bbacked Yes | 55c | 108.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 56c | 108.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed Yes | 16c | 106.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.48 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 15c | 104.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 23c | 102.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 14c | 89.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.57 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…abbbbacked No | 12c | 86.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 83.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 13c | 80.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 34c | 78.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fde…b0ffbacked Yes | 50c | 73.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc49e…e660backed Yes | 35c | 59.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 27c | 54.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…fa0ebacked Yes | 76c | 53.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 45c | 49.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 39.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 49c | 37.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 66c | 35.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 55c | 27.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 25.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 66c | 24.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 16.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802c…e4b0backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.