Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cbe510205a33a039cfd5e25d8d920094368e3f901bba5afb4623320eab731ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 2,860$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked No | 5c | 1,501$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.22 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 1c | 1,442$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 1c | 1,309$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 754.69$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 50c | 685.47$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.26 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 592.28$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 19c | 470.54$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.27 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 31c | 444.29$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.32 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 13c | 414.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 8c | 396.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 53c | 343.89$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.02 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 5c | 278.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 9c | 221.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 11c | 191.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 60c | 189.72$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.29 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed Yes | 75c | 157.6$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.19 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc49e…e660backed Yes | 21c | 113.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 58c | 100.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 61c | 93.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7621…ef40backed Yes | 38c | 91.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…bfa8backed No | 33c | 80.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…7ababacked No | 69c | 70.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 67c | 69.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 41c | 64.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 67c | 60.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 31c | 55.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked Yes | 36c | 52.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 71c | 51.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 61c | 50.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed Yes | 37c | 43.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 32c | 35.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…a6aabacked Yes | 65c | 22.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 65c | 22.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 74c | 15.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.