TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,446
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,606

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,446 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d01…63f0backed Yes2c5,063$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.513265.6%21 W · 11 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+30.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes65c3,350$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,190.335,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28f6…6cc9backed Yes69c2,956$2,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,025.81330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-55.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb697…9c56backed No55c1,996$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.8810924.8%27 W · 82 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x216e…fda6backed No69c1,891$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.327118.3%13 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No49c1,593$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.7112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1fa…047dbacked No26c921.36$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.169428.7%27 W · 67 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x380b…bfa8backed No16c826.62$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.312030%6 W · 14 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick13cpaid+103.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes63c791.2$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8216144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No40c734.83$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.9142130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc89…095cbacked No6c672.21$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.683534.3%12 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+52.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes53c663.94$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.194148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…1e85backed Yes9c649.01$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No10c630.49$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.5431542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a99…e614backed Yes15c503.69$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5118116.6%30 W · 151 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe689…159fbacked No4c466.48$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.6420342.9%87 W · 116 L+20.8wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+55.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed No24c428.99$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.8519133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1385…e96abacked No24c428.14$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.1113732.1%44 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe57d…043abacked No8c411.76$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.828746%40 W · 47 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff6…8ac5backed Yes6c340.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.797034.3%24 W · 46 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No25c337.22$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.461,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No25c332.13$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.1886420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No53c309.88$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.962,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes17c298.14$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.232,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked No39c280.96$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.254043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f4…5944backed No18c280.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.013531.4%11 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d2b…5271backed No60c276.34$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.241216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8719…12cebacked No20c264.94$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.36540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+57.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes77c238.35$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.1859440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed No10c220.54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.4822450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17dd…056abacked No50c211.62$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.926913%9 W · 60 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked No12c211.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.864062.5%25 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick68cpaid+6.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No18c205.3$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.052,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No18c204.33$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.451,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked No12c195.61$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1721,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No12c191.42$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.281,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x095d…110bbacked No12c186.62$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.491040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes26c174.82$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5351321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked No62c161$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.8816651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fd1…c53bbacked No12c160.36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick13cpaid+310.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed Yes11c158.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6616944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd801…ab8bbacked Yes55c156.97$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.94616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-69.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb5…e19cbacked No16c155.53$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.3710617.9%19 W · 87 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4f87…9d87backed No9c153.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick27cpaid+301.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes47c152.08$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7424149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed No28c149.22$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.6221142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f1…abbbbacked No62c147.87$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.31850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes43c145.27$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.341,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No22c142.07$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8119152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked No79c140.66$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0495933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes77c137.06$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0339541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes13c135.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.157,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8a71…0dcdbacked No60c131.13$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.122045%9 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick34cpaid-21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No10c129.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.3231341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a92…b344backed No63c124.7$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.312339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-30.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2861…4b7bbacked No16c119.02$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.73250%16 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No22c116.11$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0846824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes78c115.62$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.6134067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No12c114.4$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.2819059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes14c105.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6835133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed No11c104.81$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2543525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfff9…a21abacked No12c101.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.388138.3%31 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed No29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7114637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes50c96.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xddfa…014fbacked No14c96.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.112055%11 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49e…e660backed Yes32c95.56$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.78450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes79c94.8$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.823,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e6…762ebacked No14c91.28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.563043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f35…fcdbbacked No16c88.72$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.932050%10 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4667…20f2backed Yes13c79.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.024117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-52.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fde…b0ffbacked Yes56c74.8$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.58837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-38.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa18…682ebacked No14c73.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+132.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc9…fc76backed No67c68.76$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.631266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No41c63.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.471,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d04…822dbacked No47c62.22$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No28c59.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.44,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe664…2db8backed No18c58.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.81850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No37c54.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4566141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes49c52.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.786524.6%16 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cb2…14d6backed Yes80c51.92$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.297754.5%42 W · 35 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39f6…4e63backed No59c49.84$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes78c45.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.922638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes76c43.9$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.48,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc29…b3b6backed No40c42.82$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.838252.4%43 W · 39 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes77c42.06$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4311644%51 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x105c…1011backed No28c41.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7811220.5%23 W · 89 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8755…e1c0backed Yes80c40$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes72c39.15$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0935362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bcc…b908backed Yes55c37.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.65549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed No55c37.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6944757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9e99…9584backed Yes39c34.42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.483762.2%23 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+27.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x262f…87edbacked No56c33.18$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0537…61d3backed No60c32.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.85933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes75c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.515275.7%115 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24a9…8df1backed Yes79c27.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf876…8975backed Yes74c27.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.995332.1%17 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb72…8792backed Yes48c25.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.99333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02d…e07cbacked Yes73c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.240%0 W · 4 L-2.5wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes68c23.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8257232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.