Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-01-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6dd6ad4c258646de31baf6edf9dec608967316c669623a0695a458bb8f76f83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,075$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 999.42$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.54 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 54c | 927.51$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.94 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309b…2c72backed Yes | 24c | 829.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 48c | 825$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.58 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa524…1252backed Yes | 46c | 760.87$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Yes | 38c | 758.51$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 47c | 699.7$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.11 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 78c | 640.82$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.89 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked No | 55c | 599.97$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.99 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 45c | 525.42$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.59 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…ca90backed No | 55c | 514.44$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 51c | 489$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Yes | 19c | 474.9$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 9c | 445.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…0c26backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed No | 56c | 276.79$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.79 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…bb01backed Yes | 45c | 222.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8187…c0eabacked No | 52c | 190.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 25c | 180.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 54c | 165$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 150.39$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x485d…fc8abacked Yes | 30c | 116.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…1efbbacked Yes | 47c | 106.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 70c | 99.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Yes | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Yes | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked No | 56c | 64.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…36a2backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 37c | 58.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Yes | 39c | 52.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Yes | 48c | 51.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…f312backed No | 75c | 49.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 68c | 44.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…a98bbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…11ecbacked No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…aad1backed Yes | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 46c | 33.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ab…9953backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Yes | 47c | 32.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c8…bc51backed Yes | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…c634backed Yes | 45c | 29.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9456…44b1backed No | 56c | 27.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked No | 55c | 27.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 53c | 24.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1384…12acbacked Yes | 47c | 24.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…3db8backed Yes | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 77c | 17.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-01-30?this page
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Melbourne City FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-01-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.