Australian A League · resolved market
Will Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Melbourne City FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e13178a6d7172b6fdf422dca1eb698a0d803672b797f3122a8a17326a553203
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 1,500$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.84 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,186$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.16 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 27c | 1,151$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.33 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd40b…429abacked Yes | 78c | 827.59$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 38c | 807.49$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.31 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 777.97$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.99 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 75c | 703$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.61 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 42c | 677.09$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.79 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa524…1252backed Yes | 27c | 555.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.56 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 25c | 546$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.08 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0315…5eb3backed Yes | 76c | 352.62$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 304.82$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.47 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 17c | 263.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 21c | 245.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…9c0abacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 55c | 198.29$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 11c | 190$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed No | 80c | 187$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 60c | 183.75$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.04 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…d943backed Yes | 64c | 162$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 145.08$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.91 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0931…8dccbacked Yes | 28c | 132.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Yes | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 75c | 79.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 37c | 72.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…e3d3backed Yes | 79c | 67.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…c11abacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…f312backed No | 54c | 54.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cec…b955backed Yes | 75c | 46.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Yes | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 34.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed No | 37c | 32.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…d266backed Yes | 78c | 24.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Melbourne City FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-01-30?No won
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-01-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.