Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America Swiss Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb70b072ab9557deea504005baa888f3acf4a447a4911fa1448ea7a8bcaebd16c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alliance Guardiansof Alliance Guardians, ROSE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8f9…fee2backed ROSE | 57c | 1,561$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.55 | 282 | 47.5%134 W · 148 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…bb59backed Alliance Guardians | 41c | 1,353$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…9209backed Alliance Guardians | 41c | 1,341$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…252fbacked Alliance Guardians | 41c | 1,129$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed Alliance Guardians | 47c | 1,100$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583 | 285 | 48.4%138 W · 147 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d4…de0cbacked Alliance Guardians | 41c | 1,082$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…f210backed ROSE | 73c | 1,035$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Alliance Guardians | 27c | 989.79$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.06 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…e1c2backed ROSE | 53c | 979.02$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.88 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b61…0cebbacked Alliance Guardians | 41c | 929$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…9f02backed ROSE | 59c | 885$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b49…9c03backed ROSE | 59c | 844$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…b7bbbacked Alliance Guardians | 41c | 800$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9142…22c0backed ROSE | 59c | 754$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…14b6backed ROSE | 59c | 733$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…d57dbacked ROSE | 39c | 729.87$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.87 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…fffcbacked ROSE | 59c | 629$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc36…827abacked ROSE | 59c | 608$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7db…95babacked ROSE | 59c | 599$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb289…c1a4backed ROSE | 59c | 582$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…07ecbacked ROSE | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be3…7180backed ROSE | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Alliance Guardians | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 312 | 32.7%102 W · 210 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked ROSE | 8c | 497.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Alliance Guardians | 42c | 478.62$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.8 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Alliance Guardians | 46c | 472.53$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.17 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f4…8c1ebacked ROSE | 54c | 453.74$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.02 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Alliance Guardians | 58c | 436.86$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.48 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed ROSE | 59c | 423$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.57 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…7531backed Alliance Guardians | 45c | 405.03$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.61 | 333 | 48.3%161 W · 172 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alliance Guardians | 65c | 237.3$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.89 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b65…e344backed Alliance Guardians | 65c | 236.76$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa340…409bbacked ROSE | 67c | 236.48$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.44 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…2dd6backed Alliance Guardians | 33c | 217.73$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Alliance Guardians | 35c | 180$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Alliance Guardians | 28c | 161.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.12 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cd…a24abacked ROSE | 67c | 148.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98c6…3d1ebacked ROSE | 77c | 129.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76d3…7034backed ROSE | 80c | 125.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked ROSE | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Alliance Guardians | 46c | 117$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked ROSE | 15c | 109.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed ROSE | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Alliance Guardians | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Alliance Guardians | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Alliance Guardians | 24c | 75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 274 | 11.3%31 W · 243 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Alliance Guardians | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Alliance Guardians | 28c | 64.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Alliance Guardians | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 321 | 41.7%134 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Alliance Guardians | 35c | 55.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 147 | 57.8%85 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked ROSE | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 257 | 45.9%118 W · 139 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Alliance Guardians | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Alliance Guardians | 31c | 34.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c5…7b0bbacked ROSE | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed ROSE | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked ROSE | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Alliance Guardians | 41c | 28.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Alliance Guardians | 46c | 28.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed ROSE | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2489…60f1backed ROSE | 75c | 25.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed ROSE | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed ROSE | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ec…dab9backed ROSE | 69c | 20.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…24c2backed ROSE | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…77fdbacked ROSE | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed ROSE | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…a3d3backed ROSE | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed ROSE | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa132…482ebacked ROSE | 68c | 17.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America Swiss Stagethis page
- Map Handicap: ROSE (-1.5) vs Alliance Guardians (+1.5)Alliance Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.