Fifa International · resolved market
Will Belgium vs. North Macedonia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb755e32850241a6fe9f2be4f87291ed70c33a061c4f5c360c71f942c3e03723e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 43c | 21,396$9,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,214.67 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Yes | 58c | 20,696$12,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,695.64 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 56c | 5,394$2,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,996.59 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,499.68 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…f478backed Yes | 28c | 3,516$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,515.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…a857backed Yes | 10c | 2,964$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,667.67 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 46c | 2,152$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.7 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 13c | 2,060$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.66 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 46c | 1,787$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.75 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 76c | 1,319$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.89 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 13c | 821.15$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.11 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 67c | 676.95$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.79 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +57%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 65c | 307.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.87 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…3c35backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.27 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 12c | 206.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.52 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849a…7163backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 31cpaid | +253.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5242…5a2cbacked Yes | 11c | 145.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.45 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 12c | 115$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd585…3d66backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…2785backed Yes | 80c | 101.28$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed Yes | 55c | 92.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 11c | 91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 65c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…a490backed Yes | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…2be0backed Yes | 61c | 62.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe409…4c39backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…2e7fbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7630backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Belgium vs. North Macedonia end in a draw?this page
- Will Belgium win on 2025-10-10?No won
- Will North Macedonia win on 2025-10-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.