Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Boise State Broncos
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7761309c96a1e55c36e4ff6845fc599f08c8a15cd930f5424b7a89a9f2e54f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boise State Broncosof San Diego State Aztecs, Boise State Broncos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Boise State Broncos | 52c | 6,012$3,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,885.66 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked San Diego State Aztecs | 48c | 4,106$1,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,966.64 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…9936backed Boise State Broncos | 52c | 2,445$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd9…31bbbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 48c | 2,429$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked San Diego State Aztecs | 25c | 1,907$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.62 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Boise State Broncos | 76c | 1,125$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.36 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed San Diego State Aztecs | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boise State Broncos | 68c | 999.24$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.21 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Boise State Broncos | 74c | 708.03$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.82 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 22c | 537.5$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 771 | 42.3%326 W · 445 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked San Diego State Aztecs | 31c | 511.54$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.37 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Boise State Broncos | 77c | 391.48$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.93 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed San Diego State Aztecs | 32c | 326.4$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.91 | 932 | 47.3%441 W · 491 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked San Diego State Aztecs | 48c | 297.48$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.68 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee28…8266backed San Diego State Aztecs | 15c | 288.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 164 | 36%59 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed San Diego State Aztecs | 6c | 264.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb5…c2adbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Boise State Broncos | 54c | 148.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed San Diego State Aztecs | 50c | 148.69$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a57…f898backed San Diego State Aztecs | 18c | 140.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed San Diego State Aztecs | 15c | 126.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed San Diego State Aztecs | 27c | 120.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Boise State Broncos | 52c | 106.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed San Diego State Aztecs | 18c | 100.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…d7c3backed San Diego State Aztecs | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 491 | 57.2%281 W · 210 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked San Diego State Aztecs | 47c | 92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego State Aztecs | 21c | 72.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed San Diego State Aztecs | 22c | 67.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd046…c496backed San Diego State Aztecs | 48c | 61.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca6…3841backed San Diego State Aztecs | 25c | 60.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked San Diego State Aztecs | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 334 | 45.8%153 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed San Diego State Aztecs | 31c | 52.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed San Diego State Aztecs | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 195 | 22.1%43 W · 152 L | -36.3wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked San Diego State Aztecs | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 202 | 54.5%110 W · 92 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed Boise State Broncos | 63c | 46.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed San Diego State Aztecs | 48c | 40.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82f…ba73backed San Diego State Aztecs | 48c | 30.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Boise State Broncos | 51c | 27.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a2…23a0backed Boise State Broncos | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Boise State Broncos | 75c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.