MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7780507b09d275281d5fb04760631f51b00445a00346bf7e8200f9bb7fc1cfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 37c | 2,173$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,358.98 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 1,540$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.19 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 488$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.71 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 482.29$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.59 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Los Angeles Angels | 52c | 403.85$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.85 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 199$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.28 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 139.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Los Angeles Angels | 29c | 96.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 74.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Los Angeles Angels | 26c | 74.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Los Angeles Angels | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 57.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Angels | 43c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 50.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Los Angeles Angels | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Baltimore Orioles | 73c | 48.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Los Angeles Angels | 28c | 45.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Los Angeles Angels | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…4fccbacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 13.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.