MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7083e3974b425a58c293f7a96c6a0a401b8e797519d88d34a5b51e767179cb39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 52c | 3,422$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,628.21 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 63c | 1,334$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.29 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Over | 45c | 1,103$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.19 | 718 | 50.1%360 W · 358 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 48c | 999.99$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.99 | 296 | 47.3%140 W · 156 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 878.17$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.66 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 46c | 691.68$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.43 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +31.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 37c | 654.89$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.58 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 54c | 638.37$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.67 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 593.68$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.63 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 46c | 505$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.7 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 47c | 375.23$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.87 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 52c | 254.05$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.32 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 53c | 248.15$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.52 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 242.75$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.24 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 43c | 240$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.27 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 45c | 186.98$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.84 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Over | 55c | 182.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Under | 47c | 181.91$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 53c | 153.35$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ffcabacked Under | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 107.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 51c | 106.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 51c | 81.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 676 | 53.1%359 W · 317 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…2d37backed Over | 54c | 76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 48c | 74.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Under | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 62.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 47c | 52.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 47c | 52.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 51c | 52.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 48c | 49.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 41c | 47.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 37.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 47c | 36.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 41c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 63c | 30.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 60c | 29.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0884…f381backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 54c | 21.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Over | 65c | 21.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.