TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,568
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,340

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,568 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb077…8fe8backed Under52c3,422$1,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,628.2133554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over63c1,334$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.2911,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Over45c1,103$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.1971850.1%360 W · 358 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over48c999.99$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.9929647.3%140 W · 156 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under41c878.17$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.6612,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Over46c691.68$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.4361652.8%325 W · 291 L+31.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Under37c654.89$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.5890446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Over54c638.37$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.6779247.5%376 W · 416 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under50c593.68$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.6310,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Under46c505$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.728350.9%144 W · 139 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2509,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under47c375.23$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.876,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Under52c254.05$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.321,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over53c248.15$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.5275248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over48c242.75$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.248,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Under43c240$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.848653.7%261 W · 225 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under46c199.99$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.2799947.5%475 W · 524 L-3.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under45c186.98$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.843,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bfa…8b61backed Over55c182.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018356.8%104 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb1…1002backed Under47c181.91$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4121350.2%107 W · 106 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Under53c153.35$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.6576558%444 W · 321 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd17a…ffcabacked Under52c134.62$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.625149%25 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under45c107.71$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.243,50951%1,789 W · 1,720 L+53.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under51c106.38$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.132,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506053.3%32 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Over51c81.86$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7567653.1%359 W · 317 L+29.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacac…2d37backed Over54c76$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.993138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over45c75$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.755,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over48c74.48$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.754,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Under46c65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.120944%92 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over59c62.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.965,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61d3…189abacked Over47c52.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7123854.2%129 W · 109 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed Over47c52.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7126752.8%141 W · 126 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Over51c52.15$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.591,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under48c49.14$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.681,82854.1%989 W · 839 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over41c47.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.641,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over54c37.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.086,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Under47c36.22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2259749.9%298 W · 299 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under41c33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.471,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Over63c30.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.952,14950.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.22,41349.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L+22.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over60c29.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.493,46051.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L+107.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0884…f381backed Over55c27.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over54c21.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.872,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc203…8beebacked Over65c21.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1213263.6%84 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.