MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4068747e8c712a7c6e0efeb50223e00bbe04ac46476c1454fa9e97a712e9d2f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 7,000$3,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,150 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 6,545$3,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,948.42 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 5,073$2,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,232.19 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 3,725$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.21 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 1,429$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.71 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 597.18$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.73 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 420$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 396.55$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.55 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 346.08$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.54 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 592 | 52.7%312 W · 280 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 281.45$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.21 | 296 | 47.3%140 W · 156 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 194$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.18 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 179.74$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 384 | 53.9%207 W · 177 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 140$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 516 | 46.9%242 W · 274 L | -21.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 139.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 137.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 99.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 47.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 37.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa58…63b4backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Los Angeles Angels | 79c | 23.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Los Angeles Angels | 70c | 22.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 68c | 21.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.