South American Leagues · resolved market
Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb77f26debdc01a9cfdb35e89ade94d1c6f5787182d9c711efd91b6ad265fe7cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 1,546$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.55 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 38c | 1,310$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 42c | 1,275$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.48 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 996.93$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.94 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 63c | 835.63$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.7 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 32c | 610.34$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.99 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb624…e927backed Over | 35c | 415$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 32cpaid | +212.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 62c | 335.71$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.52 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 69c | 334.72$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.28 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 99 | 25.3%25 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ab…20e9backed Over | 36c | 263.89$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 61c | 237.83$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 62c | 192.89$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 63c | 188.66$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa733…5264backed Over | 62c | 146.77$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad84…1897backed Over | 38c | 132.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 37c | 132.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 63c | 132.43$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0614…ff8bbacked Over | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 31c | 103.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe08c…e03cbacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 61c | 90$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…3003backed Over | 56c | 67.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff3…0744backed Over | 37c | 67.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 62c | 59.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3711…7339backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdd…c6bbbacked Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Over | 62c | 38.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 65c | 28.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed Over | 60c | 27.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…dbfdbacked Over | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 67c | 16.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5this page
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)Estudiantes de La Plata won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.