Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Roberto Carballes Baena
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb78658edbab326d8f919901773ab6293950ef2a6bc23b74274a6c36874f2e1e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mackenzie McDonaldof Mackenzie McDonald, Roberto Carballes Baena
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 6c | 2,525$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.8 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Mackenzie McDonald | 74c | 2,453$1,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.41 | 4,760 | 49.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L | +176.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 25c | 1,961$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.18 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e4…3c69backed Mackenzie McDonald | 68c | 1,471$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.59 | 371 | 44.5%165 W · 206 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Mackenzie McDonald | 67c | 1,138$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.01 | 566 | 51.8%293 W · 273 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 66c | 1,057$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.02 | 3,319 | 48.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L | -52.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0c…218abacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 34c | 999.97$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 541 | 38.1%206 W · 335 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 33c | 974.06$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.54 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 33c | 701.23$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.41 | 872 | 51.1%446 W · 426 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ee…406dbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 67c | 677.61$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d47…64eebacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 34c | 600$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 32c | 600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Mackenzie McDonald | 76c | 595.97$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.97 | 599 | 65.8%394 W · 205 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…1a99backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 96 | 30.2%29 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 68c | 478.81$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.22 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 7c | 419.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 269 | 21.2%57 W · 212 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 17c | 402.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 33c | 339.37$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x877b…fa0bbacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 19c | 335.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…164bbacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 275 | 28.4%78 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Mackenzie McDonald | 66c | 259.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 910 | 50.2%457 W · 453 L | -20.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Mackenzie McDonald | 74c | 184.76$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 1,832 | 53%971 W · 861 L | -45.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 26c | 166.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | -16.0wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 37c | 162.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,198 | 52.4%628 W · 570 L | +28.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 581 | 45.8%266 W · 315 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 33c | 117.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…2f71backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 21c | 108.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 466 | 58.6%273 W · 193 L | +24.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 16c | 105.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 2,839 | 47.2%1,340 W · 1,499 L | +38.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Mackenzie McDonald | 64c | 104.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 2,440 | 51.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad5…ccdebacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 33c | 79.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 550 | 32.7%180 W · 370 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 25c | 72.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…d276backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 20c | 67.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 19c | 67.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 33c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 2,528 | 36.2%914 W · 1,614 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 37c | 59.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03be…cd20backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 34c | 52.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…7cefbacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 35c | 42.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 367 | 43.6%160 W · 207 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 33c | 37.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 32c | 37.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Mackenzie McDonald | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…fbbbbacked Mackenzie McDonald | 67c | 36.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Mackenzie McDonald | 63c | 31.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Mackenzie McDonald | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 444 | 52.5%233 W · 211 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Mackenzie McDonald | 64c | 21.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1,107 | 52.8%585 W · 522 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…c60ebacked Mackenzie McDonald | 69c | 20.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 395 | 60.3%238 W · 157 L | +28.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.