Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb79a3984534d2ff5d7d686444482f16ba430d738bc245525d31bc9e15d1c73cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 58c | 476.15$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.87 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 14c | 377.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 334.62$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 319.19$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 317.18$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 16c | 305.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…34c2backed No | 45c | 262.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.35 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 231.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 227.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 226.8$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.38 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 55c | 225.03$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 47c | 195.94$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.74 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 48c | 193.63$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 71c | 192.61$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe945…5fbbbacked Yes | 53c | 191.88$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 66c | 185.78$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.45 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 77c | 171.05$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.52 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 42c | 167.31$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 19c | 163.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.09 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 38c | 133.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 61c | 132.5$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 129.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.79 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 128.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 57c | 128.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 40c | 117.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 40c | 116.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…703dbacked No | 43c | 109.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 105.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 73c | 103.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 68c | 101.53$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 37c | 95.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 52c | 93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0343…cb9fbacked No | 46c | 82.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…5eb7backed No | 60c | 76.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 70c | 72.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 34c | 71.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 69.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 60c | 65.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 65.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…2c4abacked Yes | 56c | 64.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 61c | 63.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 38c | 61.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 36c | 60.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…932dbacked Yes | 46c | 60.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 60.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 58.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 41c | 55.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 33c | 54.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 52c | 53.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…20fabacked No | 56c | 53.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 75c | 52.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 67c | 50.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 43c | 48.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…0366backed Yes | 36c | 46.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…fe90backed No | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 54c | 44.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 69c | 44.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 40c | 42.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 61c | 42.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 69c | 38.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 59c | 37.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6edbbacked Yes | 41c | 35.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 54c | 33.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 42c | 33.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 58c | 33.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 37c | 31.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 61c | 31.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked No | 33c | 30.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e89…2f76backed Yes | 42c | 30.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 39c | 28.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 72c | 28.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 57c | 28.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed No | 53c | 27.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4752…0a6fbacked No | 44c | 25.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…1b2bbacked Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…2775backed No | 65c | 24.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 59c | 24.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 52c | 24.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 48c | 24.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 52c | 24.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 77c | 24.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 59c | 23.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 60c | 23.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…5d59backed Yes | 56c | 21.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea4…47dbbacked Yes | 79c | 20.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 60c | 20.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b3…4461backed Yes | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…31c4backed No | 64c | 17.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 60c | 17.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3417…b146backed Yes | 67c | 15.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.