Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cb999c5249ccb57c0aacb69525b6020afb0f1d8fe2fdd7afadf72e0641652f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 953.08$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.91 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 65c | 950.5$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.66 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 780.75$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 75c | 758.36$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.36 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 36c | 534.4$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.08 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 9c | 499.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 308.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 294.15$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 275.51$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 28c | 261.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.17 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 202.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 8c | 200.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf97b…c751backed Yes | 20c | 187.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 180$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 171.93$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 158.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 158.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 29c | 155.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 149.09$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 33c | 148.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 15c | 143.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 66c | 129.92$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 129.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 129.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 79c | 125.7$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 21c | 118.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 22c | 106.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 17c | 100.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 67c | 97.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 28c | 88.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 36c | 85.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 57c | 81.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 79c | 76.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 15c | 72.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 36c | 72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 74c | 70.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 70c | 69.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 70c | 63.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…932dbacked Yes | 25c | 59.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 58c | 59.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 57.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 69c | 56.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 63c | 54.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked No | 77c | 51.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 73cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 38c | 50.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 32c | 49.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 79c | 49.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 67c | 49.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 33c | 49.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 49.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 24c | 47.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 65c | 46.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…e1a8backed Yes | 22c | 45.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 42c | 45.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 30c | 42.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 41.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes | 32c | 38.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 31c | 37.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 35c | 37.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 80c | 36.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 35.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed No | 79c | 32.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 78c | 32.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 35c | 31.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 80c | 30.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 29.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked No | 66c | 28.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 76c | 27.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 66c | 26.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 65c | 26.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 44c | 26.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…977cbacked No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 44c | 24.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 67c | 23.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…75abbacked No | 80c | 23.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 70c | 23.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 69c | 22.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f6…fa86backed No | 64c | 22.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…9e9ebacked No | 80c | 19.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 39 | 87.2%34 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 78c | 18.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…f095backed No | 80c | 18.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 17.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 68c | 17.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 69c | 16.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 68c | 16.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 43°F or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.