Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7c0cad3b7e045758a8c0ba852a3892b4a2123d592c18d0227add51f2c99edf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virtus.proof Virtus.pro, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 51c | 11,159$5,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,661.72 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Virtus.pro | 51c | 7,231$3,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,578.03 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…3a70backed Pipsqueak+4 | 1c | 5,555$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Virtus.pro | 48c | 4,462$2,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,305.9 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…96f4backed Pipsqueak+4 | 29c | 4,067$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virtus.pro | 59c | 4,044$2,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.45 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a8…2927backed Pipsqueak+4 | 53c | 3,758$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,983.66 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…eb66backed Virtus.pro | 64c | 1,832$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.77 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Virtus.pro | 63c | 1,239$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.49 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Virtus.pro | 64c | 512.68$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.72 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Virtus.pro | 69c | 405.09$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Virtus.pro | 49c | 182.01$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.83 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Virtus.pro | 49c | 172.28$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.72 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 42c | 107.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked Virtus.pro | 61c | 101.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 94 | 78.7%74 W · 20 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Virtus.pro | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Virtus.pro | 55c | 93.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Virtus.pro | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 47c | 57.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Virtus.pro | 54c | 50.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Pipsqueak+4 | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5338…f428backed Pipsqueak+4 | 43c | 25.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 48c | 24.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed Virtus.pro | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a0…9fcdbacked Virtus.pro | 75c | 18.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Virtus.pro | 59c | 17.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3)Virtus.pro won
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 WinnerVirtus.pro won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.