Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Porto vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7cd14f14dfb92ccb3b220479b39c0e5bb0420bba9c76bfda411fd64c53bf169
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac69…3c46backed Yes | 8c | 3,335$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,379$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.88 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…a196backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 13c | 1,529$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.5 | 7,966 | 45.3%3,608 W · 4,358 L | +9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 20c | 1,529$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.43 | 965 | 42.9%414 W · 551 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 79c | 1,424$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.53 | 386 | 39.4%152 W · 234 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 16c | 1,174$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.93 | 2,123 | 35.5%754 W · 1,369 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Yes | 32c | 781.25$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce5…17f9backed Yes | 16c | 481.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 9c | 416.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 1,288 | 39.4%507 W · 781 L | -33.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9661…36f6backed Yes | 19c | 293$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…3699backed Yes | 9c | 228.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Yes | 14c | 157$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked No | 80c | 137$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…74a4backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…4943backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 69c | 62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 33c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 317 | 54.3%172 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…1cb2backed No | 75c | 34.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked Yes | 33c | 32.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Porto vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Arouca win on 2026-08-23?No won
- Will FC Porto win on 2026-08-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.