La Liga · resolved market
Celta Fortuna vs. FC Andorra: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7ce42b45ffd26dbeedf8607fb2c11cd0dfabdde9730485abee4cc2f313b349b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 3c | 519.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503 | 607 | 32.5%197 W · 410 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 76c | 509.26$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.02 | 413 | 51.8%214 W · 199 L | +17.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Under | 36c | 364.28$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…43afbacked Over | 77c | 333.35$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…4078backed Under | 14c | 256.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 22c | 237.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 9c | 206.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.93 | 564 | 39.2%221 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 165.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.69 | 3,444 | 43%1,482 W · 1,962 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…00fcbacked Over | 14c | 145.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Under | 23c | 132.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 13c | 95.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ff…50cbbacked Over | 64c | 86.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd45d…dc3fbacked Over | 64c | 48.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…f26ebacked Over | 63c | 46.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 443 | 24.2%107 W · 336 L | -49.5wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33ae…cf9ebacked Over | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celta Fortuna vs. FC Andorra: O/U 4.5this page
- Celta Fortuna vs. FC Andorra: FC Andorra O/U 2.5Under won
- Celta Fortuna vs. FC Andorra: O/U 0.5Over won
- Celta Fortuna vs. FC Andorra: O/U 1.5Over won
- Celta Fortuna vs. FC Andorra: O/U 2.5Over won
- Celta Fortuna vs. FC Andorra: O/U 3.5Over won
- Celta Fortuna vs. FC Andorra: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Celta Fortuna (-1.5)Celta Fortuna won
- Spread: FC Andorra (-1.5)Celta Fortuna won
- Spread: FC Andorra (-2.5)Celta Fortuna won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.