Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb83944c876be0d45334e3e2594a8f0cef1d5fc33b9a7818802328ec3cc0e74d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb784…61d0backed No | 74c | 18,000$13,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,680 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 5,775$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.51 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 26c | 4,200$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 26c | 3,717$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.35 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…f52fbacked Yes | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 26c | 924.52$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.1 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 24c | 898.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 832.01$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.49 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 70c | 567$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.79 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 73c | 499.98$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 31c | 489.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 23c | 435.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 410.87$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.83 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 26c | 405$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347c…525abacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 366.4$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.66 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 26c | 299.71$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 27c | 246.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 75c | 240.44$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 23c | 217.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Yes | 12c | 204.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09d3…3128backed Yes | 27c | 192.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed No | 74c | 175.68$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 71c | 156.6$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Yes | 26c | 127.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…ac49backed Yes | 13c | 112.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 17cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…b135backed No | 74c | 106.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 105.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 26c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked No | 74c | 81.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 20c | 79.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 26c | 75.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 37c | 73.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…2f4abacked No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 26c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 26c | 65.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…61a8backed No | 73c | 55.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 63c | 54.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…c9e4backed Yes | 25c | 44.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…ce65backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…6c1fbacked No | 77c | 14.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-01-25?No won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-01-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.